8.3%

Butchery

Commodities Report

Dairy Pricing

Milk prices had been falling. However, we believe this may soon change. The general feeling amongst farmers is that it has been a shaky start to the traditional Spring flush. Milk volumes are lower than expected so this may cause prices to rise again. Cheese prices also seem to be on the rise again. This is reflected first in the younger cheeses such as mozzarella and can often signal the direction of travel for cheese prices.

Egg prices

Eggs have been the subject of our commodities report on a nearly monthly basis over the last 6 months. Prices are still rising and we continue to have reports of the major supermarkets being without stock.

Chicken

Pricing has eased somewhat on frozen chicken especially and we predict it will continue to do so as the Ukraine is expected to continue to increase shipments to the EU, benefitting from temporary EU free-trade measures. This should also trickle through to the UK. 

Tuna prices

Tuna prices have continued to rise since the beginning of the year. Lower than average sea temperatures have hindered the feeding and migratory habits of tuna leading to lower catches. High diesel costs, which fuels the majority of fleets, have also impacted costs.

Potatoes:

Potato prices have been increasing and look set to be significantly higher year on year. There are a number of key factors expected to drive the higher prices:

• Processors have committed to pay their farmers higher prices

• Factory capacity is at a premium. Chip producers can sell more than they can produce. New factories are being built in Europe to accommodate but this will take time

• Current free buy/Spot market prices are at record high.

Lower oil prices should help mitigate some of the price rises. It is however a seller’s market.

Dried Fruits & Nuts

The earthquake in Turkey has caused a massive slowdown on some dried fruits as warehouses have fallen down or are feared as unsafe for workers. It will take time to rebuild structure in the region, so pricing is expected to be higher for the foreseeable future.

Olive Oil

The global price of olive oil hit a 26-year high. Heat and drought in Spain and elsewhere in the Mediterranean harmed production of olive oil.

Cocoa

Cocoa has seen increased prices of around 22% versus 2022. This is due to a decline in cocoa exports from Nigeria (Nigeria is the worlds fifth-largest cocoa bean producer). The Ivory coast crop is also predicted to be 25% lower than last year. Cocoa farmers continue to struggle with the lack of fertilisers and pesticides as the war in Ukraine has limited Russian exports of potash and other fertilisers worldwide.

Spain and Portugal are currently suffering from heat and lack of rainfall. Of the 3 main water reservoirs in the North of Spain, one is already fully depleted, and the levels of the others is very low. 

The Ukraine dam explosion is set to have long lasting consequences for the fruit and vegetable industry. The flooding has covered one of the country’s most fertile areas and without the dam, areas further south will lack vital irrigation.

Fish & Seafood

The Marine Conservation Society have released their new ratings:

• Bluefin tuna stocks have recovered enough to now be able to be sold

• Most rays and skates remain either red or orange rated, so best avoided

• Yellowfin tuna stock in the Indian Ocean has been seriously overfished despite the existence of certain management measures that have not been properly monitored or enforced. 

• Stocks of mackerel in the Northeast Atlantic are still abundant but are consistently overfished. This is causing stocks to decline and the MCS has downgraded them. Hand line fished mackerel in the South West of the UK is still considered sustainable.

• Sardines caught in French or Spanish fisheries in the Bay of Biscay have been downgraded to a 5 rating due to poor management and concerns over low stock levels. Stick to UK caught sardines when in season.