MARKET NEWS

Food Inflation News:

Rising UK labour costs and global tariff wars could lead to a surge in foodservice price inflation in the next few months, analysts have warned.

Foodservice price inflation has eased in recent months, with the CGA Prestige Foodservice Price Index dropping by a marginal 0.1 point from January 2025. However, six out of 10 of the categories tracked by the index experienced month-on- month inflation in February and only one category showed year-on-year deflation.

The highest year-on-year inflation was observed in oils and fats at 5.7% and coffee, tea and cocoa at 6.8%. Cocoa and coffee prices remain at nearly double the average price compared to 2023. Meat and poultry prices are also under significant upward pressure with beef prices continuing to trade at record highs, and price rises in chicken being seen due to the avian flu outbreak in Poland.

Analysts said the full impact of US tariffs on prices has yet to materialise and the situation remains uncertain. President Trump yesterday announced a 90-day pause for countries hit by higher tariffs but increased the tariff on goods from China to 125%.

The increase in the National Minimum Wage and National Insurance Contributions (NICs) in April could also push up prices in the supply chain as producers and wholesalers adjust to increased overheads and analysts have warned businesses to remain “vigilant” for future price increases.

COMMODITIES REPORT

Egg Supply:

Avian Influenza continues to cause issues with the egg market in the UK. The UK is 88% self-sufficient for eggs and the growing number of affected farms and the prevention zone has meant a reduction in supply and availability of free-range eggs in particular. This is being reflected in pricing.

Produce Update:

The Dutch season is due to begin mid-month, along with UK salads in early May. Our procurement team are working closely with suppliers to monitor any supply chain issues throughout the transition.

Wild garlic is at its prime with volumes increasing as temperatures continue to rise. The season will come to an end by early June so make full use of the subtle flavours. Spanish strawberries will draw to a close with products from Holland beginning to appear early in the month. Some of our amazing suppliers already have stock of some delicious British grown strawberries too!

Also, in season in February:

• UK Wild Garlic
• UK Cauliflower
• UK Purple Sprouting Broccoli
• Italian Fennel
• UK Asparagus
• Italian Broad Beans
  

Poultry:

We continue to see consistent increases in the price of chicken and turkey, with availability being a major issue. Although we expect the milder weather to reduce the impact of Avian Influenza, it will take many months for flocks to fully recover.

Many Polish suppliers to the UK are restricted on exports until the end of April due to Avian Influenza, so we do not expect the shortage to improve until May at least.

Lamb Prices:

In better news, the UK Lamb season has arrived and quality and prices are look good. Demand always spikes over the Easter period but as our prices are held for the month, you can rest assured you won’t have any sudden price hikes.

Seasonal Recipe Suggestion

A quick and delicious way to use this season’s Wild Garlic.

Creamy Wild Garlic Tagliatelle

Ingredients:



100g Tagliatelle per person

1 large handful wild garlic

200ml Mighty Oat Milk

Squeeze of lemon juice

2 tbsp olive oil

3tbsp sunflower seeds or walnuts

2tbsp nutritional yeast/grated Parmesan

Method:

1. Cook the pasta and blend the other ingredients together to create a creamy pesto.

2. Drain the pasta, put back in the saucepan and stir in the pesto until all the Pasta is covered.

3. Season with salt and pepper to taste.